Business News: Rolex And Cartier Are In Another League – A Deep Dive On The Pains And Gains In Morgan Stanley's "Swiss Watcher" Report

The biggest Swiss watch brands, including Rolex, Cartier, Audemars Piguet, and Patek Philippe, posted sales and market share gains in 2025 as much of the industry struggled to adapt to higher costs, rising prices at retail, and more fickle customers, according to a report by Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult.

The ninth annual “Swiss Watcher” report by the investment bank compiles estimates of watch brand sales and production volumes each year with input from a Swiss-based firm, LuxeConsult. For 2025, it shows a sector that is increasingly dominated by a handful of leading brands that are winning share from the bulk of their industry competitors who are suffering from falling revenue and squeezed profit margins because of the rising value of the Swiss franc against the U.S. dollar, record gold prices, and more cautious consumers in some markets.

Rolex increased sales by about 4% to top CHF 11 billion for the first time, even as it trimmed production or allocations to retailers by about 2% to about 1.15 million watches, according to Morgan Stanley estimates. The lower production volumes mark the second year in a row that Rolex lowered the number of watches released to the market. That is the first time that’s happened in more than two decades, according to the report. One of some 450 brands in Switzerland tracked by the analysts, the Crown now accounts for about one-third of total industry sales. Amid price hikes and rising input costs across the industry, the average retail price of a Rolex rose 6% to about CHF 14,000, according to the estimates.

Rolex declined to comment on the report or the accuracy of the analyst’s estimates when contacted by Hodinkee. Controlled by a trust foundation in Geneva named for its founder, Hans Wilsdorf, Rolex rarely makes public statements about its business operations.

The report also highlights strong performance and growing sales by the Swiss watchmaking division of the Richemont-owned jewelry brand Cartier, as well as independent, family-owned brands Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet.

Another independent brand, Richard Mille, known for its bold designs, distinctive cases, use of unusual materials, and eye-watering prices, remained in the so-called billionaires club with an estimated CHF 1.75 billion in sales of about 6,000 watches.

The report shows that the four largest privately owned Swiss brands gained market share, reaching a combined 49% and capturing half of the Swiss industry, as the closely held companies used scale, brand equity, pricing power, and tightly controlled supply in a market that was structurally moving upscale through premiumization. The private brand group, which accounted for half of the market in 2025, has climbed from 37% in 2019.

Substituting Cartier and Omega for Patek and Richard Mille, just four brands, Rolex, Cartier, Audemars Piguet, and Omega, are responsible for about 55% of industry sales, according to the report. As part of the Richemont Group, Cartier is a highly notable exception as part of a publicly listed luxury group, says Oliver Müller, the founder of LuxeConsult. “Cartier does extraordinary work keeping things balanced and at an accessible price,” he says in an interview.

Swiss watch industry volumes have been cut in half since 2011, falling to 14.6 million units in 2025. That’s down 44% since the global financial crisis began in 2008, and 51% since the most recent industry volume peak in 2011. Luxury watch brands are producing fewer timepieces at higher prices, a trend of upscaling that is pressuring suppliers and the wider industry. The report says watches priced above CHF 50,000 accounted for 37% of export value and 89% of growth in 2025, while representing just 1.4% of volumes.

That shift is impacting corporate groups like Swatch Group AG, particularly, as the company and its key brands, including Omega and Longines, are losing market share, according to the report. Omega slipped from the third-ranked brand by sales to fifth as Audemars Piguet and Patek Philippe moved up the rankings, and Longines fell out of the so-called ‘Billionaires Club,’ with sales falling 18% to about CHF 920 million, according to the report.

Swatch Group, however, disputes the estimates in the Morgan Stanley LuxeConsult report, which a company spokesperson says contains “wrong estimations, assumptions, data, figures, and statements.” 

“They obviously do not know the watch market and the different brands,” the company spokesperson says. Swatch Group says it outpaced Swiss watch export figures in 2025, down 1.3% by value compared to the overall market decline of 1.7%. The company says sales grew 4.7% at constant currency exchange rates in the second half of the year.

Not all the strong brand performance was at the ultra-high end, however. Tudor sales rose by 2% to CHF 460 million in 2025 as the Rolex sister brand reduced its exposure to China with a shift in model lines. The analysts also revised and restated Tudor’s performance in 2024 to sales of CHF 450 million from the previous estimate of CHF 360 million.

Richemont brand IWC increased sales by 5% during the year on the back of product launches, including new Ingenieur models, and slightly lower volumes after years of declines, and Jaeger–LeCoultre posted marginally higher sales with 7% lower volumes, the report says.

On the more approachable-priced end, U.K.-based, Swiss-made brand Christopher Ward entered the top 50 brands, with a 50% increase in sales to CHF 51 million on volumes of about 39,000 watches. Meanwhile, Raymond Weil, the Geneva-based family-owned brand that has won favor with its vintage-inspired Millesime and Toccata lines, posted sales growth in 2025 to about CHF 79 million and rose three places in the rankings.

“With retail prices ranging from CHF 2,000 to CHF 5,000, Christopher Ward and Raymond Weil offer strong value propositions in terms of features, design, and perceived quality. While independents continue to represent only a small fraction of the overall Swiss watch market, developments such as these suggest they are becoming increasingly relevant competitors for selected legacy brands,” the analysts say in the report.

A surprise shift in the rankings was the estimated performance of Jacob & Co., which the analysts say posted sales gains of 14% to CHF 180 million and a 24% increase in volumes, making it the fastest-growing returning brand by both sales and volumes, according to the report. 

*Lead image via Getty Images/Mattia Ozbot